World population growth will see a major transformation in the next 50 years, shifting almost entirely from industrialized countries to the less developed countries of Africa, Asia, and Latin America, according to the Population Reference Bureau's 2001 World Population Data Sheet, released yesterday.
     "Currently, of the 83 million people added to global population each year by the difference between births and deaths, only 1 million are in the industrialized countries," said demographers Carl Haub and Diana Cornelius, authors of the study.
     By 2050, the ratio of people in less developed countries to those in the developed world could be nearly 6-to-1, according to the study. "The developing world's population is projected to increase by 2.9 billion by 2050, compared with only 49 million in the more developed countries," the authors said (George Gedda, Associated Press/Boston Globe, 22 May).
     Other major facts revealed in the report include:

• Women in less developed countries (excluding China) currently average 3.6 children, compared with only 1.6 in more developed countries;
• The United States is now the only industrialized country in the world with a fertility rate at or above the "replacement level" of 2.1 children per woman;
• In Europe, fewer babies are born each year than there are deaths, leading to "natural decrease," or population decline, except where it is offset by immigration;
• Africa will increase by about 1 billion people by 2050, but the populations in Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe are expected to decline because of HIV/AIDS;
• Both the birth rate and life expectancy in Russia and Ukraine have dropped, resulting in the highest rate of natural decrease in modern history -- a "remarkable" -0.7% per year; and
• Globally, six out of 10 couples practice some form of family planning, although the proportion is 47% in less developed countries. The use of family planning is lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where only 19% of couples use contraception (PRB release, 21 May).